Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac32…6e3b other 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,118 (+3%) realized +$6,119 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate63%131W / 76L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$873per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$246est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$266
14 days+$232
30 days+$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$609
sports 46% +$6,542
finance 2% $0
world 1% +$11
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.7% -42.8% 43% 43% -19.5%
≤30d 18 -1.4% -10.8% 61% 56% -1.3%
≤90d 51 -6.9% -15.8% 51% 33% -11.6%
all 207 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 21% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 21% -6.5%
10% -15.1% 18% -15.5%
15% -23.3% 13% -23.6%
20% -30.8% 11% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,598) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$99 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$6,119
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses131 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$246
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage404d
Avg bet$873
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $132 +$82 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $836 +$255 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $556 +$279 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $582 −$582 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,371 +$381 +28%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. South Afric Jun 18 $202 +$117 +58%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $639 +$91 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $174 +$198 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $37 −$35 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $66 +$89 +135%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$113 +113%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $164 −$162 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $100 +$65 +65%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 −$96 -96%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$188 +188%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $620 −$77 -12%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $3,564 −$3,547 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5) Apr 12 $25 $0 -0%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $4,111 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 10 $1,853 +$32 +2%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $3,520 +$480 +14%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2,734 +$830 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $50 −$48 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $150 −$144 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 08 $3,055 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $50 +$107 +213%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $50 +$43 +85%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3,540 +$260 +7%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $2,020 +$11 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 04 $88 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 02 $123 +$2 +1%
Bucks vs. Rockets Apr 02 $2,380 +$69 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 01 $203 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $132 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 42¢ $102 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $1,091 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $836 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 96¢ $835 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $556 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $582 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,004 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $367 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st H BUY 62¢ $202 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. South Afric BUY 63¢ $202 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $453 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $372 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $371 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $174 16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 16d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $277 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 18d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $37 19d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes $22 22d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes $3 22d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $221 22d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes $25 23d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $31 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.42 · official $49.42 (match) · 795 history records