Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AC 0xac34…5cbd other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$161 (+16%) realized +$84 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +69% what you keep after slip
Net edge+69%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$17
crypto 36% +$200
sports 4% +$59
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+83.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +102.8% +83.5% 50% 50% +66.7%
≤30d 4 +102.8% +83.5% 50% 50% +66.7%
≤90d 4 +102.8% +83.5% 50% 50% +66.7%
all 4 +102.8% +83.5% 50% 50% +66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.5% 50% +66.7%
10% +65.9% 50% +50.8%
15% +49.9% 50% +36.2%
20% +35.2% 50% +22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +103% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$13 · ×7.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.32 per $1 lost it wins $7.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$843
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)4 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $193 $282 +$89 (+46%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$81 +525%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 −$22 -87%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$111 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $843.36 · official $843.52 (match) · 21 history records