Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac35…ad85 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$667 (+18%) realized +$840 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$968
other 32% −$499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +29.9% +17.6% 26% 26% +7.0%
≤30d 19 +29.9% +17.6% 26% 26% +7.0%
≤90d 19 +29.9% +17.6% 26% 26% +7.0%
all 19 +29.9% +17.6% 26% 26% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.6% 26% +7.0%
10% +6.3% 26% -3.2%
15% -4.0% 26% -12.6%
20% -13.4% 26% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +151% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$559 vs −$154 · ×3.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$840
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $127 $21 −$106 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $373 −$365 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $420 −$414 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $310 −$303 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $611 +$967 +158%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$574 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $496 +$687 +138%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $96 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $373 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 24h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 24h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $217 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $203 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 36h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 36h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $217 44h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $54 47h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 47h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $102 47h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $256 47h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $1,578 47h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $555 47h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $204 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 39¢ $305 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $92 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.98 · official $73.47 · 36 history records