Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac36…b1e1 weather 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$42 (+6%) realized +$24 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 65% +$51
sports 24% −$10
other 8% −$5
politics 3% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 71% 53% -3.1%
≤30d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 71% 53% -3.1%
≤90d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 71% 53% -3.1%
all 17 +12.2% +1.5% 71% 53% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 53% -3.1%
10% -8.2% 35% -12.4%
15% -17.1% 35% -20.8%
20% -25.2% 29% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $38 $60 +$22 (+56%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $32 −$32 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $29 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $83 +$17 +21%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $17 +$33 +195%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 24 $25 +$25 +98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $18 +$32 +172%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $39 +$21 +52%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $19 +$20 +104%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $39 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $32 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $99 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 79¢ $28 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 23¢ $12 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes $7 12h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 100¢ $50 17h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $18 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 65¢ $39 29h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 49¢ $19 33h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 33¢ $7 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 34h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 74¢ $23 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 34h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 74¢ $14 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 50¢ $8 34h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 49¢ $17 34h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 33¢ $10 35h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY Yes 19¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 35h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 35h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 96¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $114 38h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $28 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.02 · official $63.02 (match) · 48 history records