Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac37…a967 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate72%44W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$12
crypto 16% −$2
world 12% +$2
economics 11% −$2
finance 5% +$6
politics 5% +$2
culture 3% +$3
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 22% -8.8%
≤90d 38 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 29% -9.5%
all 61 -3.4% -12.6% 72% 25% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 25% -9.3%
10% -20.9% 10% -18.0%
15% -28.6% 5% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses44 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)61 / 76
History coverage139d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 51¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 81¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 03 $7 −$6 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 03 $15 +$3 +23%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $17 +$3 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $14 +$3 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $7 +$3 +39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 04 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 04 $10 +$2 +19%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $9 +$4 +41%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $27 +$1 +5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $4 −$3 -83%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $5 +$1 +30%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $16 $0 -2%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $14 +$1 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 03 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 03 $16 +$2 +11%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $39 +$8 +21%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 31 $29 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 27 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 19 $6 $0 +8%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 19 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 26 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $8 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $14 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $15 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $15 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $16 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $11 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 91¢ $7 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $7 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 81¢ $11 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 22d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.88 · official $38.81 · 235 history records