Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xac37…f243 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$283 (-3%) realized −$283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%62W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$11
crypto 38% −$299
tech 8% +$1
world 3% +$2
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 69 -8.3% -17.0% 90% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -12.0%
10% -24.9% 0% -20.4%
15% -32.2% 0% -28.1%
20% -38.8% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$49 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses62 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage552d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $227 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 9? Jun 09 $236 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? Jun 01 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $145 $0 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $144 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $180 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 16 $275 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 08 $173 +$1 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $143 +$1 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? Apr 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 08 $349 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 09 $210 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 09 $222 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 09 $230 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 04 $138 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 04 $270 +$1 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 21 $80 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 5-11? Jan 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 17 $200 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 10 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 10 $380 +$7 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Dec 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 08 $228 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 08 $318 +$1 +0%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Nov 11 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 29 $205 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on October 23? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 23? Oct 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 25 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Oct 23 $255 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on September 12? Sep 28 $270 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on August 22? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22? Sep 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 12 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $4800 on August 22? Sep 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 510 or more times August 1–August 8? Aug 22 $270 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 06 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $180 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $200 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $228 4h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 8d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $220 8d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $211 9d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $210 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $236 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $103 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $227 17d
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 34d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 34d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $180 39d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 39d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 39d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 46d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $275 46d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 96¢ $82 46d
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 69d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 69d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 77d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 77d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $143 77d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $173 77d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? BUY No 100¢ $88 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $349 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.52 · official $595.52 (match) · 146 history records