Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac3f…ff05 sports 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$4
other 20% −$2
politics 19% −$1
culture 11% $0
economics 6% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 119 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage162d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 96¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $46 $0 -1%
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $82 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $78 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $38 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $54 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $70 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 11d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 11d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $30 19d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $30 19d
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $33 30d
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $33 31d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $33 39d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $33 41d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $42 128d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $42 128d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $35 128d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $35 128d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $7 128d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $7 128d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $30 128d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $30 128d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 92¢ $9 128d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $27 128d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $27 128d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $1 128d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 92¢ $34 128d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 128d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $43 128d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $44 128d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $44 128d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $37 128d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $37 128d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $29 128d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $9 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.96 · official $33.96 (match) · 468 history records