Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AC 0xac43…043f world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$10
other 12% +$2
finance 2% $0
weather 0% −$8
sports 0% −$2
politics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 30 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 3% -9.0%
≤90d 35 +1.3% -8.4% 49% 3% -9.2%
all 46 +2.5% -7.3% 50% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 7% -9.2%
10% -16.1% 4% -17.9%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage538d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 65¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $27 +$2 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $92 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $233 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $49 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $52 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $23 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $56 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $485 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $232 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $232 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $254 +$2 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Trump" 3 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 04 $3 +$6 +245%
Longwood vs. High Point Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 47°F or higher on February 13? Feb 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? Jan 03 $12 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $39 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $48 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $25 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $27 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.53 · official $36.20 · 166 history records