Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac46…1478 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 35% -10.7%
≤30d 17 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 35% -10.7%
≤90d 17 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 35% -10.7%
all 17 -21.9% -29.3% 41% 35% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 35% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 35% -19.2%
15% -42.3% 29% -27.0%
20% -47.9% 24% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -80%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $78 −$28 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$15 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $23 +$14 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $82 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $97 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records