Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac46…eb50 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$499per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$9
other 16% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage8d
Avg bet$499
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 28 $552 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 28 $552 $0 +0%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 23 $486 +$4 +1%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $485 $0 +0%
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jun 20 $443 −$4 -1%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $478 −$5 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $552 44m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $552 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $552 2h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $552 2h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $490 5d
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $486 5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $485 5d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $485 5d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $439 8d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $443 8d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $473 8d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $478 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records