trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | $100,002 | $105,240 | +$5,239 (+5%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 88¢ | 96¢ | $10,012 | $10,865 | +$853 (+9%) |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $5,000 | $5,105 | +$105 (+2%) |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | Flavio Cobolli | 28¢ | 0¢ | $2,191 | $0 | −$2,191 (-100%) |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $500 | $0 | −$500 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 4.5 | Jun 07 | $151 | +$24 | +16% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 07 | $2,237 | −$2,191 | -98% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? | Jun 07 | $510 | −$500 | -98% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca | Jun 01 | $20,088 | +$3,773 | +19% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 31 | $5,002 | +$121 | +2% |
| French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? | Apr 26 | $1,001 | −$1,001 | -100% |
| Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla | Apr 26 | $3,500 | −$3,500 | -100% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 23 | $5,000 | +$218 | +4% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $500 | +$1,682 | +336% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | Feb 28 | $2,000 | +$1,864 | +93% |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Feb 28 | $1,058 | +$469 | +44% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Feb 18 | $5,000 | +$1,010 | +20% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Feb 10 | $7,870 | +$345 | +4% |
| Winter Games 2026: Will USA or Norway earn more medals? | Feb 08 | $606 | −$61 | -10% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -61.5% | -65.1% | 33% | 33% | -94.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -32.6% | -39.0% | 60% | 40% | -5.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -44.8% | -50.1% | 50% | 25% | -16.9% |
| all | 14 | +9.3% | -1.1% | 64% | 43% | -5.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -1.1% | 43% | -5.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -10.6% | 21% | -14.8% |
| 15% | -19.2% | 21% | -23.0% |
| 20% | -27.1% | 14% | -30.6% |