Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac4a…bf1e
world · 128 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$56,428 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,565 · open +$11,663
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$151,463
Realized+$3,565
Unrealized+$11,663
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions500
Markets (closed)38 / 128
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,381
Trades / day3320.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 500 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,565
7 days+$3,565
14 days+$3,565
30 days+$3,565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $8,267 $8,214 −$52 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 72¢ 80¢ $6,912 $7,625 +$712 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 77¢ 58¢ $8,238 $6,246 −$1,992 (-24%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 60¢ 88¢ $3,695 $5,466 +$1,771 (+48%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,849 $4,987 +$138 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 60¢ 87¢ $3,038 $4,374 +$1,336 (+44%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $2,761 $3,825 +$1,064 (+39%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 80¢ 81¢ $3,483 $3,568 +$86 (+2%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 93¢ 95¢ $3,263 $3,335 +$72 (+2%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $2,822 $3,242 +$420 (+15%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 80¢ 97¢ $2,459 $2,961 +$502 (+20%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $1,120 $2,808 +$1,687 (+151%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 94¢ 99¢ $2,488 $2,628 +$140 (+6%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 47¢ 50¢ $2,417 $2,563 +$146 (+6%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 90¢ 94¢ $2,462 $2,559 +$97 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 81¢ $2,200 $2,220 +$20 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 31¢ 39¢ $1,688 $2,169 +$481 (+29%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 62¢ 61¢ $2,199 $2,156 −$42 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1,564 $2,135 +$572 (+37%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,951 $1,995 +$43 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,850 $1,893 +$43 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 48¢ 57¢ $1,567 $1,867 +$300 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ 29¢ $721 $1,830 +$1,109 (+154%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $1,572 $1,797 +$225 (+14%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,627 $1,691 +$64 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $790 +$544 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$7 +84%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $662 +$26 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $3,858 +$1,007 +26%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $68 −$41 -61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $209 +$27 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $122 +$198 +162%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $256 −$4 -2%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $923 +$52 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4,628 +$1,088 +24%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $249 −$164 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $226 +$421 +186%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,259 −$1,199 -95%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $621 −$447 -72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3,613 +$742 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $426 +$12 +3%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $37 −$24 -65%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $49 −$7 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $532 +$96 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $17 +$7 +39%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $33 −$12 -37%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $314 +$778 +248%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $140 −$85 -60%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $249 −$14 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $0 +$86 +32226%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$9 -38%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $12 +$842 +6789%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $426 −$360 -85%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$5,194
other 33% +$8,236
tech 8% +$3,376
finance 4% −$858
politics 3% +$120
culture 0% −$826
sports 0% −$17
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $7 0m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 1m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $16 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $29 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 1m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 25¢ $25 1m
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 2m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $62 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $108 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 87¢ $174 3m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $133 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $175 3m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $35 3m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $39 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 17¢ $0 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $110 4m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 4m
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $261 5m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $104 5m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof SELL Yes 82¢ $9 5m
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL No 1¢ $0 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+93.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +114.2% +93.8% 55% 39% +3.6%
≤30d 38 +114.2% +93.8% 55% 39% +3.6%
≤90d 38 +114.2% +93.8% 55% 39% +3.6%
all 38 +114.2% +93.8% 55% 39% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3320.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.8% 39% +3.6%
10% +75.2% 29% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here +58.3% 24% -15.4%
20% +42.8% 21% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151,463.49 · official $152,486.11 (match) · 3500 history records