Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xac4a…7617 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate73%159W / 60L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$884per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$7,243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$112
14 days−$143
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$103
other 16% −$75
weather 8% +$42
sports 8% −$20
world 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +2.2% -7.6% 47% 6% -10.0%
≤30d 33 +2.2% -7.6% 64% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 54 +3.2% -6.6% 78% 9% -9.9%
all 219 -2.1% -11.5% 73% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 10% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$7,243
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses159 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)219 / 236
History coverage629d
Avg bet$884
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,265 $2,253 −$12 (-1%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,192 $1,191 −$1 (-0%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,181 $1,178 −$3 (-0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $960 $955 −$5 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $855 $854 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $481 $476 −$4 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 92¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 94¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $386 −$11 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $4,761 −$15 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2,938 −$5 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $3,980 −$8 -0%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $1,723 −$13 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,537 −$4 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $5,271 −$48 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,637 −$10 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,603 −$11 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,487 −$10 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,457 −$13 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April? Jun 19 $3 $0 +13%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 13? Jun 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17? Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 12? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? Jun 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 12? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 5? May 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 5? May 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 5? May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on May 5? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-04? May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? May 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 5? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Brazzaville: Digvijaypratap Singh vs Dillon Beckles May 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 5? May 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 5? May 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 1? May 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 1? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 1? May 04 $17 +$1 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Apr 30 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 20? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 57¢ $489 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $858 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $961 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1,183 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $2,269 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 42°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 1h
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $372 22h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $375 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $4,745 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1,055 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1,057 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $4,761 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $785 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $8 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $6 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $25 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $8 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $52 4d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $1,001 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $124 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $7 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $390 4d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $1,533 4d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $708 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,242.98 · official $7,243.07 (match) · 822 history records