Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AC 0xac4d…066d sports 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,075 (-1%) realized −$1,095 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%127W / 82L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$481est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$86
14 days−$229
30 days−$862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,430
crypto 0% −$29
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +12.8% +2.1% 59% 59% -0.5%
≤30d 47 -15.5% -23.5% 43% 43% -24.5%
≤90d 157 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 46% -15.7%
all 209 -0.9% -10.3% 61% 38% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 38% -10.9%
10% -18.9% 36% -19.4%
15% -26.7% 34% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$169 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,095
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses127 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$481
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 210
History coverage135d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins the toss? Australia 55¢ 100¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas - Who wins th Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 18 $50 +$41 +83%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? Jun 17 $28 +$23 +79%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? Jun 16 $51 +$42 +83%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $30 +$86 +291%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? Jun 14 $28 +$23 +79%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $102 +$52 +51%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $71 +$56 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Who wins the tos Jun 13 $54 +$43 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $70 +$10 +14%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $31 −$31 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $71 −$20 -28%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire - Who wins the toss? Jun 07 $25 +$20 +79%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 05 $22 −$9 -42%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 05 $25 +$23 +89%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - Jun 02 $181 +$167 +92%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 02 $598 −$598 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 31 $336 +$279 +83%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands - Who wins the May 29 $29 −$29 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $300 −$70 -23%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $450 −$450 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 26 $152 +$148 +97%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Derbyshire May 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 26 $184 −$184 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 26 $278 −$278 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 26 $204 −$204 -100%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Somerset May 25 $102 +$125 +123%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $449 +$325 +72%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Who wins May 23 $81 +$73 +90%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $167 +$116 +69%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $160 +$199 +124%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants - Who wi May 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings - Who win May 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 18 $171 −$147 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who win BUY Australia 55¢ $25 1h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas - Who wins th BUY Texas Super Kings 55¢ $51 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? BUY Scotland 54¢ $50 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss BUY South Africa 54¢ $51 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands - Who wins the toss? BUY India 55¢ $20 43h
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins BUY New Zealand 55¢ $30 46h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh - Who wins the toss? BUY Australia 55¢ $28 47h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Who wins the toss? BUY England 54¢ $51 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $30 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 42¢ $51 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan - Who wins the toss? BUY India 55¢ $28 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 82¢ $117 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 35¢ $51 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 43¢ $37 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 57¢ $25 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $25 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins BUY Bangladesh 55¢ $71 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 17¢ $26 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa - Who wins the tos BUY Australia 55¢ $54 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 15¢ $26 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 24¢ $51 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 55¢ $20 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 55¢ $30 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka - Who wins the toss? BUY England 55¢ $29 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 76¢ $46 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 26¢ $20 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 30¢ $25 8d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Kent 51¢ $31 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 32¢ $20 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 72¢ $69 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.43 · official $45.43 (match) · 594 history records