Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac56…c4ae crypto 2118 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-3%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate70%1293W / 547L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$53
14 days+$187
30 days+$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$151
other 16% +$16
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 +12.8% +2.0% 72% 72% +2.4%
≤30d 1540 +8.8% -1.5% 68% 66% -3.0%
≤90d 1840 +7.2% -3.0% 70% 61% -5.8%
all 1840 +7.2% -3.0% 70% 61% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 61% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 57% -14.8%
15% -20.8% 53% -23.1%
20% -28.5% 40% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1293 / 547
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1840 / 2118
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1840 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +46%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3459 history records