Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac57…65cc culture 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,339 (-3%) realized −$1,218 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate87%144W / 21L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3,631now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$217
14 days+$367
30 days+$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$292
culture 41% +$365
politics 9% −$1,297
world 1% +$28
tech 1% −$208
weather 0% +$7
finance 0% +$15
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 5% -7.3%
≤30d 44 +2.5% -7.2% 100% 2% -7.4%
≤90d 123 -7.3% -16.1% 86% 2% -12.1%
all 165 -3.3% -12.5% 87% 10% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -11.8%
10% -20.8% 7% -20.3%
15% -28.5% 4% -28.0%
20% -35.5% 1% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$153 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$3,631
Realized−$1,218
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses144 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)165 / 180
History coverage189d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 90¢ 85¢ $1,167 $1,104 −$63 (-5%)
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 90¢ 86¢ $504 $482 −$22 (-4%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 84¢ 81¢ $448 $432 −$16 (-4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $463 $428 −$36 (-8%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $323 $337 +$14 (+4%)
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $177 $174 −$3 (-2%)
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $160 $160 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $120 $136 +$16 (+13%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $127 $135 +$9 (+7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 52¢ 6¢ $29 $3 −$25 (-88%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +25%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this Jun 16 $666 +$9 +1%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $1,003 +$25 +2%
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $359 +$4 +1%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $286 +$3 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $684 +$13 +2%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $420 +$4 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidenti Jun 11 $144 +$8 +6%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $435 +$45 +10%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $301 +$6 +2%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $308 +$8 +3%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $556 +$8 +1%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $649 +$8 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 11 $803 +$22 +3%
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 11 $989 +$22 +2%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 11 $1,001 +$11 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $75 +$1 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 05 $282 +$3 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 05 $478 +$14 +3%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $518 +$6 +1%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $755 +$11 +2%
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $961 +$41 +4%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 05 $970 +$40 +4%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $983 +$34 +4%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $63 +$1 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $86 +$1 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we May 27 $263 +$4 +2%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 27 $506 +$13 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week? May 27 $564 +$6 +1%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 27 $756 +$17 +2%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $976 +$14 +2%
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 27 $994 +$16 +2%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? May 27 $993 +$17 +2%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 25 $110 +$1 +1%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we May 25 $197 +$2 +1%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week May 19 $142 +$1 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 19 $409 +$7 +2%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 global Netflix movie this May 19 $667 +$24 +4%
Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song o May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for May 19 $89 +$1 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15? May 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this wee May 13 $991 +$19 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 12 $991 −$991 -100%
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week? May 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 12 $334 +$4 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 12 $392 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 3h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee BUY Yes 99¢ $30 3h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 3h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $30 4h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 65¢ $119 4h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 17h
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 17h
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 19h
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 20h
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 21h
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 21h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 78¢ $41 26h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 98¢ $20 28h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 78¢ $37 32h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 39h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 96¢ $13 47h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 97¢ $28 47h
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 97¢ $29 2d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $30 2d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $28 2d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 98¢ $11 2d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 global Netflix show this BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 2d
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,631.38 · official $3,633.95 (match) · 2317 history records