Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac57…f164 crypto 369 markets active 18h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$601 (-6%) realized −$596 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%144W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$157
world 21% −$232
sports 8% −$326
other 5% +$128
politics 2% +$77
economics 0% +$8
culture 0% −$12
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -3.0% -12.3% 34% 34% -3.4%
≤30d 38 -7.2% -16.0% 34% 32% -7.3%
≤90d 223 -12.8% -21.1% 39% 31% -13.6%
all 363 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 34% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 34% -15.3%
10% -22.7% 30% -23.4%
15% -30.1% 23% -30.8%
20% -37.0% 18% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$596
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses144 / 219
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)363 / 369
History coverage501d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$6 +146%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$8 +354%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$21 +141%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 26 $11 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 26 $9 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 26 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 14 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 10 $7 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 10 $4 +$1 +23%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $3 +$14 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 09 $6 +$5 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 18h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 74¢ $2 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 3¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 3¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 54¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 16¢ $1 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $2 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.46 · official $20.46 (match) · 2283 history records