Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xac59…c16f crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$5
crypto 28% +$1
politics 12% −$8
other 9% +$3
sports 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 0% -9.3%
all 36 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -10.8%
10% -21.0% 3% -19.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage139d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $253 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 29 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 30? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 17? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 16? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 8? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 7? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $29 +$4 +12%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $36 −$4 -10%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 02 $7 −$4 -50%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $12 −$4 -33%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $8 −$4 -50%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $15 +$4 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $142 49m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $123 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $124 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $129 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $127 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.65 · official $141.65 (match) · 123 history records