Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AC 0xac5a…1ac8 sports 870 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,111 (+41%) realized +$1,111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%337W / 529L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days+$450
14 days+$664
30 days+$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$898
other 26% +$164
weather 0% −$4
politics 0% +$13
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -40.2% -45.9% 27% 26% +26.0%
≤30d 300 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 40% +23.8%
≤90d 866 +23.9% +12.1% 39% 38% +24.8%
all 866 +23.9% +12.1% 39% 38% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.1% 38% +24.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 35% +12.9%
15% -8.4% 34% +2.0%
20% -17.4% 31% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses337 / 529
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions3
Markets (closed)866 / 870
History coverage66d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+76%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Haiti 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $14 +$4 +29%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Anders Lind vs Iulian Chirita Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
MLP Dallas: Texas Ranchers vs Bay Area Breakers Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Maryville University vs Winthrop University - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Cervia (Doubles): Gadamauri/Tu vs Genov/Nesterov Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Blockx vs. Wong: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: JL (-1.5) vs Ghools Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$1 -29%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A Jun 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs Ozarox Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Joint/Perez vs Eikeri/Gleason Jun 18 $9 −$3 -35%
Game Handicap: BOOM (-2.5) vs Orbit Anonymo (+2.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Lilian Bardet vs Taiwo Mati Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: FEC (-1.5) vs Dynasty (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs STEP (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Ismaily SC (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: AFC Unirea Slobozia (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: EC Jacuipense (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: CF Pachuca (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: New Meta vs Rising Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Jun 18 $8 −$3 -44%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: VOCA (-1.5) vs Chicken Coop Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Grenada (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (+1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 32¢ $44 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 23¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 62¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 32¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Power Rangers 79¢ $12 5h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Power Rangers 55¢ $8 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner SELL Estar Backs 34¢ $24 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 10¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 15¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 20¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 24¢ $4 6h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $2 9h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 13h
Luis Mejía: 3+ saves BUY Yes 24¢ $3 21h
Luis Mejía: 3+ saves BUY Yes 24¢ $26 21h
Luis Mejía: 3+ saves BUY Yes 29¢ $11 21h
Luis Mejía: 3+ saves BUY Yes 29¢ $23 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 75¢ $0 32h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 75¢ $27 32h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 75¢ $15 32h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 39¢ $22 32h
Game 4: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL No 91¢ $241 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 19¢ $14 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 30¢ $19 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 37¢ $24 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 44¢ $28 41h
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists SELL No 88¢ $33 44h
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists BUY No 48¢ $18 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 13¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $1.26 (match) · 2721 history records