Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac5c…49ac other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-2%) realized −$107 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,411per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$310
sports 20% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -19.4%
≤30d 1 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -19.4%
≤90d 1 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -19.4%
all 1 -10.9% -19.4% 0% 0% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 0% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 0% -27.1%
15% -34.2% 0% -34.2%
20% -40.6% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$292 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,300
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $1,139 $1,130 −$8 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 72¢ $610 $725 +$115 (+19%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $578 $445 −$133 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,669 −$292 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $589 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $563 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,150 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $1,135 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,234 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,242 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $306 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,835 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $367 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $121 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,300.27 · official $2,097.26 · 11 history records