Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac5d…d45f sports 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$757 (-9%) realized −$749 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$401
30 days−$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$482
other 10% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -13.4% -21.7% 67% 33% -32.5%
≤30d 48 -26.9% -33.8% 40% 29% -30.8%
≤90d 70 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 37% -22.3%
all 142 -6.5% -15.4% 54% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 39% -17.4%
10% -23.5% 32% -25.3%
15% -30.9% 24% -32.5%
20% -37.7% 20% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$749
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 66
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage283d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $214 $206 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $133 −$79 -59%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $84 +$69 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $198 −$198 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$4 +146%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $35 −$25 -72%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $59 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $110 +$23 +21%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $76 +$12 +16%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $68 +$42 +62%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $120 −$4 -4%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $122 +$28 +23%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $64 −$26 -41%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $150 +$12 +8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $27 −$12 -45%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $35 +$19 +54%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $30 +$13 +42%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 30 $25 −$10 -42%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $40 −$11 -27%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $34 −$28 -83%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $39 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $95 −$28 -29%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 30 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof May 30 $202 −$95 -47%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoff May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner May 30 $12 −$11 -88%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $48 +$12 +26%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $17 +$1 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $21 +$4 +21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $17 +$2 +13%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $29 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $23 +$18 +80%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $23 +$17 +76%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $21 +$2 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2 +$1 +34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $12 +$8 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 45¢ $22 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $77 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $133 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $79 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $12 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $84 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $15 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $132 10d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $6 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $66 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 54¢ $54 14d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 35¢ $17 14d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 35¢ $1 14d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 55¢ $28 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 34¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL TYLOO 19¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 14¢ $7 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 14¢ $0 14d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 14¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.32 · official $208.92 · 1027 history records