Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac5f…d808 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+7%) realized +$39 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%25W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$25
14 days−$49
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -85.6% -87.0% 5% 5% -18.9%
≤30d 206 -67.6% -70.6% 11% 11% -18.7%
≤90d 213 -64.9% -68.3% 12% 12% -19.9%
all 213 -64.9% -68.3% 12% 12% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.3% 12% -19.9%
10% -71.3% 10% -27.6%
15% -74.1% 9% -34.6%
20% -76.6% 8% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses25 / 188
Open positions38
Markets (closed)213 / 66
History coverage35d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 28¢ $3 $22 +$19 (+628%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $3 $20 +$17 (+589%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $3 $19 +$15 (+485%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 23¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+498%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $5 $14 +$10 (+212%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $3 $12 +$9 (+324%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+277%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 16¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+329%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1840-1919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1560-1599 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in May 2026? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.34 · official $130.34 (match) · 425 history records