Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac60…4c8f sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+3%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%60W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$82
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$133
other 33% +$146
crypto 1% −$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 24% -3.7%
≤30d 111 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 27% -8.2%
≤90d 111 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 27% -8.2%
all 111 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 27% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 27% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 18% -17.0%
15% -27.4% 12% -25.0%
20% -34.5% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses60 / 51
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage15d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $32 −$1 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $35 +$2 +5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $34 +$6 +18%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $24 +$3 +13%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $35 +$2 +5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$3 -57%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $34 +$111 +326%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $35 −$24 -69%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $70 −$27 -38%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $35 +$2 +7%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $54 +$8 +14%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $72 +$7 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $35 +$2 +6%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $38 +$13 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 20 $24 +$2 +9%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $9 +$18 +201%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals Jun 20 $60 +$19 +32%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$3 +14%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$21 +104%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 +$7 +149%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -40%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $15 +$3 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$1 -4%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $19 −$14 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $72 +$4 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 −$10 -36%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$18 -89%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 −$15 -30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$8 -42%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $10 +$8 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $4 5m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $3 5m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $24 5m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $32 6m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $36 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $35 16m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $40 19m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $34 26m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 92¢ $27 31m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $24 33m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 40m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $35 40m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $35 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 79¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 74¢ $5 3h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 79¢ $144 4h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $34 4h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 30¢ $10 6h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 88¢ $35 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $40 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $35 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 8¢ $3 7h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $37 7h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 94¢ $30 7h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 84¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records