Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac62…c79a other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$81 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days+$92
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$43
sports 28% +$205
crypto 5% −$101
world 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +8.6% -1.7% 33% 33% -6.4%
≤30d 50 +5.1% -4.9% 32% 32% -7.8%
≤90d 50 +5.1% -4.9% 32% 32% -7.8%
all 50 +5.1% -4.9% 32% 32% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 32% -7.8%
10% -14.0% 32% -16.6%
15% -22.3% 32% -24.7%
20% -29.9% 28% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$52 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions7
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage8d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$39 -77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$32 -63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$10 -20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 +$20 +39%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$151 +74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$135 +1310%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$58 -38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$268 +262%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$112 +56%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$306 +596%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 8h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL No 10¢ $19 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 26¢ $51 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $41 31h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $71 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $54 39h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.89 · official $613.89 (match) · 85 history records