Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AC 0xac65…848d other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16

7 days+$3

14 days+$8

30 days+$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+2.5%	-7.3%	67%	53%	-7.5%
≤30d	16	+4.9%	-5.1%	69%	56%	-4.3%
≤90d	16	+4.9%	-5.1%	69%	56%	-4.3%
all	16	+4.9%	-5.1%	69%	56%	-4.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.1%	56%	-4.3%
10%	-14.2%	50%	-13.4%
15%	-22.5%	38%	-21.8%
20%	-30.1%	12%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -31% → late +40% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.27 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage11d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	92¢	$27	$32	+$5 (+19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$17	+$10	+57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$15	+$2	+14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$7	+$3	+50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	+$4	+196%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$11	−$9	-79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$8	+$3	+30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$8	$0	+6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$7	$0	+6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$9	+$3	+36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$7	+$2	+29%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$10	−$8	-77%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	−$4	-79%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 08	$13	+$5	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$27	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$17	16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	87¢	$15	17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	66¢	$7	38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$7	40h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$2	42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	20¢	$2	47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$11	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$8	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$8	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$7	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	55¢	$5	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	73¢	$9	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	77¢	$7	4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	14¢	$2	5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	8¢	$1	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$5	5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL Yes	89¢	$18	8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY Yes	62¢	$13	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $31.62 (match) · 31 history records