Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac65…cfe6 sports 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 501d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,609 (+2%) realized +$1,559 · open +$50
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%115W / 69L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$397per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$841est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$691
7 days+$1,526
14 days+$295
30 days+$2,973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +40.2% +26.8% 83% 83% +10.5%
≤30d 120 +9.5% -0.9% 64% 64% -3.0%
≤90d 173 +8.2% -2.1% 63% 63% -6.1%
all 184 +6.7% -3.4% 62% 62% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 62% -7.6%
10% -12.7% 62% -16.5%
15% -21.1% 61% -24.5%
20% -28.8% 46% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$367 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

501d coverage
Net worth$5,304
Realized+$1,559
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses115 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$841
Open positions8
Markets (closed)184 / 192
History coverage501d
Avg bet$397
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 71¢ 66¢ $2,080 $1,948 −$132 (-6%)
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ 66¢ $899 $887 −$12 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $730 $724 −$6 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Washington Nationals 55¢ 56¢ $606 $623 +$17 (+3%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Under 59¢ 90¢ $370 $561 +$191 (+52%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Rafael Fiziev 55¢ 52¢ $225 $212 −$12 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 49¢ 50¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Kaitlin Quevedo 46¢ 46¢ $155 $157 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 24 $206 +$147 +72%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $244 +$314 +129%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 23 $565 +$230 +41%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $566 +$323 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $323 +$177 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $335 +$186 +56%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $17 +$11 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $288 +$96 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $675 +$396 +59%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 19 $507 −$500 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $516 −$510 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $269 +$135 +50%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 18 $959 +$404 +42%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 18 $84 +$70 +83%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $637 −$630 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 17 $163 +$155 +95%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $273 +$156 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $275 +$368 +134%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $172 +$128 +74%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $383 +$131 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $274 +$167 +61%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $195 −$193 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $978 −$967 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 13 $191 −$189 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $486 −$480 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $193 +$187 +97%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 10 $237 +$99 +42%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $336 −$331 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 10 $475 +$229 +48%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 10 $151 +$131 +87%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 09 $63 −$62 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $223 −$220 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $124 −$123 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 09 $404 −$400 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 09 $182 −$179 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 09 $379 +$167 +44%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $170 +$130 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $456 +$362 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $253 +$134 +53%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $53 +$74 +140%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $381 +$189 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $568 +$489 +86%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $454 +$203 +45%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $384 +$230 +60%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 07 $488 +$273 +56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $405 +$233 +57%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 07 $128 +$120 +94%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 07 $597 +$379 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 58¢ $206 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $193 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $375 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 46¢ $158 1h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $626 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $614 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ $244 8h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 70¢ $565 24h
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 67¢ $282 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $566 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 53¢ $507 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 61¢ $516 4d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 64¢ $335 5d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 55¢ $228 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 66¢ $269 6d
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 75¢ $288 6d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 70¢ $959 6d
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 62¢ $675 6d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 65¢ $637 6d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $17 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 51¢ $163 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 54¢ $84 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 63¢ $273 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 57¢ $172 7d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $12 7d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $275 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY No 58¢ $195 9d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $960 9d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 62¢ $191 10d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $486 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,304.45 · official $5,304.68 (match) · 321 history records