Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

AC 0xac69…b717 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$68 (-7%) realized −$204 · open +$136

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip

Net edge+31%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%5W / 7L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+54.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+70.3%	+54.1%	42%	42%	+2.0%
≤30d	12	+70.3%	+54.1%	42%	42%	+2.0%
≤90d	12	+70.3%	+54.1%	42%	42%	+2.0%
all	12	+70.3%	+54.1%	42%	42%	+2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+54.1%	42%	+2.0%
10% ← realistic here	+39.3%	42%	-7.8%
15%	+25.9%	42%	-16.7%
20%	+13.5%	42%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +70% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +83% → late +57% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$99 vs −$56 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.26 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$305

Realized−$204

Unrealized+$136

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses5 / 7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage1d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	3¢	40¢	$15	$202	+$188 (+1250%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	4¢	8¢	$39	$88	+$49 (+126%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$16	$15	−$1 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	24¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 17	$76	+$52	+68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 17	$136	−$76	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Jun 17	$17	−$15	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 17	$107	−$72	-67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 17	$15	+$90	+599%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 17	$93	−$88	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 17	$93	+$56	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Jun 17	$54	−$50	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Jun 17	$109	+$103	+94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 17	$30	+$193	+644%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 17	$21	−$20	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 17	$74	−$70	-95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$15	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$109	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$72	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$56	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$76	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	SELL Up	16¢	$61	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$136	22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$17	25m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$17	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	SELL Up	23¢	$35	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$107	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$105	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$15	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$41	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$52	43m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee	BUY Yes	4¢	$42	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	SELL Down	48¢	$149	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$93	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$54	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	SELL Down	74¢	$211	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$109	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Up	68¢	$90	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Down	84¢	$133	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$54	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.99 · official $294.99 · 28 history records