Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac69…3c46 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$356per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$209
14 days−$206
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$4
sports 43% −$301
world 11% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.9% -14.9% 62% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 24 -4.9% -13.9% 62% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 26 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 0% -11.8%
all 26 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -11.8%
10% -23.5% 0% -20.2%
15% -30.9% 0% -27.9%
20% -37.6% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$38 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage87d
Avg bet$356
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $304 −$154 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,209 −$29 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $979 +$76 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $106 −$98 -93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,440 +$24 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $223 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $265 +$3 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$3 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $200 +$7 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $338 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $224 +$3 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $541 +$3 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $401 +$6 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $944 −$65 -7%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $250 +$2 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $506 −$6 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$2 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $45 −$25 -56%
Will Chaiany Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 12 $44 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL No 46¢ $151 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 50¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 48¢ $56 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 48¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $101 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 12¢ $167 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 13¢ $103 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 16¢ $103 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 40¢ $199 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $100 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $67 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $33 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 41¢ $196 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $3 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $54 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $34 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $100 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $31 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $55 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 55¢ $307 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records