Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac6b…a962 other 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$986 (+3%) realized +$816 · open +$170
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%131W / 98L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,654now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$585
7 days+$1,000
14 days+$1,552
30 days+$1,809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,360
sports 39% −$1,079
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +7.2% -3.0% 58% 42% +3.6%
≤30d 88 +2.3% -7.4% 58% 45% -2.1%
≤90d 191 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 46% -9.4%
all 229 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 47% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 47% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 38% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 29% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$70 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$1,654
Realized+$816
Unrealized+$170
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses131 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions5
Markets (closed)229 / 234
History coverage110d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 100¢ $200 $256 +$56 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $160 $241 +$81 (+51%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $200 $239 +$39 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $230 $223 −$7 (-3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 79¢ 80¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $201 +$65 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $203 +$142 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $201 +$50 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $201 +$44 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $73 −$68 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $114 −$61 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $689 +$413 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $611 −$8 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$12 +55%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $427 −$160 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $264 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $358 +$32 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $876 +$440 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $905 +$58 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $731 −$23 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $229 −$12 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $73 −$20 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $357 −$18 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $358 +$112 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $164 −$57 -35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $178 −$148 -84%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$42 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $101 +$90 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $232 +$46 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $201 +$50 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $601 +$48 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $202 −$111 -55%
Will Marcus McGhee win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $215 −$119 -55%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $151 +$63 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $801 −$140 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $410 +$92 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $875 +$86 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$39 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $771 +$155 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $505 +$46 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $532 +$35 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $224 −$18 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $102 +$51 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $394 +$166 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $905 +$146 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $161 +$26 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $348 +$126 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $102 +$16 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $196 −$47 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $171 −$125 -73%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $201 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 82¢ $201 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $201 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $203 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $202 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $166 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $19 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $126 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $62 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $43 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $222 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $102 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $102 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $158 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $231 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $142 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,654.18 · official $1,654.18 (match) · 1258 history records