Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac6c…d0d4 sports 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$387 (-5%) realized −$391 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%90W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$73
14 days+$85
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$445
other 19% +$59
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.6% +3.7% 83% 50% -4.0%
≤30d 27 +13.6% +2.8% 70% 52% -1.7%
≤90d 148 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 48% -12.1%
all 164 -4.5% -13.6% 55% 46% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 46% -14.2%
10% -21.8% 38% -22.4%
15% -29.4% 28% -29.9%
20% -36.3% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$24 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$391
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses90 / 74
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage98d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 19.5 Yes 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 220.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 29.5 Yes 51¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 216.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Carlos Alcaraz 80¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5 Yes 64¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 Yes 36¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Kevin Durant: Points O/U 24.5 Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-11? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5 Yes 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 64¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nuggets 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Fluminense FC vs. CA Paranaense end in a draw? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Magic Cavaliers 60¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Dennis Schröder: Points O/U 9.5 Yes 55¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Hurricanes 77¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $118 +$10 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 +$16 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $96 +$6 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $88 +$8 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $117 −$29 -25%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $91 +$26 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $188 −$38 -20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $116 +$13 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $108 +$8 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $81 +$28 +34%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $17 +$14 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $56 +$11 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $24 −$12 -50%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $37 −$14 -37%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 04 $39 +$38 +100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $81 +$1 +2%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 24 $22 −$22 -98%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 24 $13 +$11 +86%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 May 23 $20 −$7 -33%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $18 −$10 -57%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 13.5 May 22 $19 +$11 +60%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $18 +$14 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $18 +$24 +129%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 19 $30 +$21 +69%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $67 +$17 +25%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5 May 16 $97 +$20 +20%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 13 $18 +$13 +73%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 May 12 $20 +$19 +93%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 May 12 $16 +$13 +82%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5 May 12 $18 +$16 +85%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 12 $28 +$24 +86%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 11 $20 +$12 +59%
Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5 May 10 $16 −$16 -99%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $30 +$17 +57%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 210.5 May 10 $50 +$19 +38%
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5 May 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $198 +$18 +9%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 07 $31 −$31 -99%
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 May 07 $18 +$12 +67%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 16.5 May 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 1.5 May 07 $15 −$10 -63%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $18 −$3 -16%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 May 03 $12 −$12 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 191.5 May 03 $15 +$4 +29%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 03 $9 −$7 -73%
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to Score May 03 $8 +$6 +79%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 203.5 May 03 $10 +$10 +96%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $128 10m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $128 11m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $118 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $118 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $102 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $96 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $88 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 SELL Under 72¢ $88 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $117 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $91 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 65¢ $60 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 38¢ $60 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $129 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $116 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $108 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 2d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $17 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 83¢ $56 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 38¢ $12 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $24 9d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 SELL Yes 36¢ $24 9d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $37 9d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $39 11d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 SELL Over 91¢ $83 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 89¢ $81 20d
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $18 20d
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 BUY Yes 36¢ $22 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.29 · official $127.29 (match) · 331 history records