Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac72…07c1 world 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$483 (-9%) realized −$496 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%135W / 410L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$38
14 days−$87
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$264
world 22% −$215
sports 15% −$37
other 10% −$5
politics 3% −$21
tech 0% −$13
finance 0% +$9
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -27.1% -34.1% 20% 16% -17.4%
≤30d 157 -21.9% -29.3% 22% 17% -23.5%
≤90d 387 -38.1% -44.0% 15% 11% -44.1%
all 545 -23.1% -30.4% 25% 21% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 21% -17.8%
10% -37.1% 18% -25.7%
15% -43.2% 14% -32.9%
20% -48.7% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$496
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses135 / 410
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions24
Markets (closed)545 / 569
History coverage107d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 9¢ $22 $7 −$15 (-69%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $7 $3 −$3 (-51%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$8 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $19 +$35 +183%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$3 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $38 +$3 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$6 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +186%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$4 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $9 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $14 −$11 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Jun 09 $3 $0 -16%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -38%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $1 $0 -15%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $1 10m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $2 20m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 22m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 29m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 5¢ $3 33m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $13 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 56m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $14 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 57m
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.33 · official $50.20 (match) · 2207 history records