Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac76…9359
world · 254 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$2,309 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,945 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,072
Realized+$1,945
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses159 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions22
Markets (closed)232 / 254
History coverage79d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 22 History 232 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$211
14 days+$640
30 days+$1,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $141 $149 +$8 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 61¢ 67¢ $110 $120 +$10 (+9%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 72¢ 69¢ $108 $104 −$4 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 48¢ 32¢ $148 $98 −$51 (-34%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 85¢ 94¢ $77 $85 +$8 (+10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 36¢ $74 $59 −$15 (-20%)
Will Leinster win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Final? Yes 19¢ 48¢ $19 $50 +$31 (+158%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 61¢ 66¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 76¢ 88¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+16%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 44¢ $36 $44 +$8 (+21%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $86 $43 −$43 (-50%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 64¢ 78¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+21%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 63¢ 47¢ $45 $33 −$12 (-26%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $22 $27 +$4 (+20%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+8%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 81¢ 90¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 80¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 86¢ 98¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 73¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? No 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Toulon win? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $134 +$32 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $216 +$62 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $334 −$10 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $246 −$26 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $253 −$3 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $262 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $109 −$15 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $104 +$14 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $77 +$6 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $38 +$6 +15%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $118 +$9 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $328 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $72 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 08 $410 +$27 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $16 +$29 +181%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $36 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $63 +$14 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $150 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $38 +$5 +14%
Will Glasgow Warriors win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Fin Jun 06 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $45 +$3 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $295 +$45 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $483 +$94 +19%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 04 $8 −$3 -38%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $69 +$5 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$12 +149%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $234 +$50 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $156 +$39 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $68 +$11 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $562 +$103 +18%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Munster win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Final? May 30 $1 $0 -15%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 30 $17 +$17 +99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 29 $96 +$14 +14%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $135 +$53 +39%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $36 +$23 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $329 −$11 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $54 +$7 +13%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $17 +$5 +29%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $271 −$38 -14%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $51 −$6 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 84% +$1,904
other 10% +$238
politics 4% −$279
tech 1% +$37
sports 1% +$16
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $4 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $12 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $2 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $2 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $2 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 84¢ $8 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 84¢ $8 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 84¢ $17 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $10 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 86¢ $33 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 79¢ $12 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 79¢ $67 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $68 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 72¢ $4 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $46 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $68 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $10 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $42 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $18 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $8 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $18 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $2 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $2 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $2 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $2 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +10.3% -0.2% 78% 33% -4.1%
≤30d 105 +11.8% +1.2% 77% 42% -2.3%
≤90d 232 +10.0% -0.5% 69% 46% -2.4%
all 232 +10.0% -0.5% 69% 46% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 46% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 28% -11.7%
15% -18.7% 19% -20.3%
20% -26.7% 14% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,071.51 · official $1,072.03 (match) · 3500 history records