Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xac82…ab71 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$150 (+9%) realized −$411 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$625
7 days−$458
14 days−$458
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$534
politics 35% −$98
other 8% +$6
sports 5% +$166
finance 1% −$20
world 1% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -51.5% -56.1% 26% 21% -43.6%
≤30d 20 -53.8% -58.2% 25% 20% -45.7%
≤90d 29 -19.1% -26.8% 34% 31% -33.4%
all 29 -19.1% -26.8% 34% 31% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 31% -33.4%
10% -33.8% 28% -39.8%
15% -40.2% 28% -45.6%
20% -46.0% 17% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$43 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage72d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$72 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$30 +118%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 +$13 +37%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $158 −$128 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$115 +224%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $363 +$78 +22%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 19 $50 −$48 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 09 $18 +$52 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 09 $107 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 08 $21 +$8 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $20 +$76 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 04 $52 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 04 $10 +$7 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $75 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $18 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $10 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $56 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $49 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 26h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $166 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 8¢ $10 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 4¢ $416 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.46 · official $50.46 (match) · 93 history records