Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac84…4dba politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-3%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$3
other 28% $0
sports 17% −$2
weather 9% −$44
crypto 4% +$8
tech 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 50% -25.7%
≤30d 7 -16.7% -24.6% 43% 43% -34.3%
≤90d 13 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 46% -32.3%
all 36 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 19% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 19% -13.2%
10% -19.4% 17% -21.5%
15% -27.2% 14% -29.1%
20% -34.3% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage527d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $211 $211 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$9 +37%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 18 $12 −$12 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 13 $8 +$9 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 12 $16 +$6 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4? May 06 $23 −$23 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $5 +$10 +226%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Jan 18 $253 $0 -0%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 27 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 14 $39 −$1 -3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 13 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $8 $0 +1%
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 03 $8 +$1 +9%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
US recession in 2025? Apr 19 $6 $0 -2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Apr 19 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Apr 17 $19 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 16 $12 $0 -4%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 07 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Mar 26 $6 $0 -3%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Mar 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 06 $8 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $211 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $221 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $221 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 92¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY No 72¢ $25 7d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 60¢ $12 32d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Up 39¢ $4 35d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 46¢ $8 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? BUY Up 73¢ $16 39d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? BUY No 80¢ $14 42d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4? BUY No 69¢ $23 44d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 30¢ $5 47d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $241 150d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $242 150d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $255 150d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $255 150d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? SELL No 100¢ $253 150d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? BUY No 100¢ $253 150d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 294d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 294d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 306d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 306d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $21 307d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $22 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.98 · official $210.98 (match) · 83 history records