Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xac8d…f98c crypto 882 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5,657 (-11%) realized −$1,932 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%565W / 315L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$190
14 days+$194
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$808
sports 39% +$832
other 12% −$1,919
world 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -3.9% -13.1% 53% 45% -3.7%
≤30d 175 +2.7% -7.0% 62% 56% -3.1%
≤90d 880 -1.5% -10.9% 64% 52% -12.8%
all 880 -1.5% -10.9% 64% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 52% -12.8%
10% -19.4% 39% -21.1%
15% -27.2% 27% -28.7%
20% -34.3% 17% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$32 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$1,932
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses565 / 315
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions2
Markets (closed)880 / 882
History coverage81d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 880 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $20 $77 +$57 (+284%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 81¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Top Esports 49¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs DN SOOPers 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Dplus KIA 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 KT Rolster 86¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend JD Gaming 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs KT Rolster 47¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks 76ers 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 86¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
First Blood in Game 2? Anyones Legend 56¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 71¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs Nongshim Red Force 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$11 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$13 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$78 +127%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $81 +$59 +73%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$9 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$38 -75%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 −$37 -36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $226 +$39 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $200 +$10 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$11 -53%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $236 +$144 +61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $22 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $112 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 14m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 14h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $33 14h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $20 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $50 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $10 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $50 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 36h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 57¢ $81 38h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 20¢ $12 38h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $50 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 50¢ $30 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 20¢ $12 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $50 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $20 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $50 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $50 46h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 80¢ $50 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.40 · official $125.10 · 3500 history records