Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

AC 0xac8e…5199 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$22 (+10%) realized +$79 · open −$57

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+12.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+24.7%	+12.9%	100%	100%	+10.9%
≤30d	2	+24.7%	+12.9%	100%	100%	+10.9%
≤90d	2	+24.7%	+12.9%	100%	100%	+10.9%
all	2	+24.7%	+12.9%	100%	100%	+10.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.9%	100%	+10.9%
10%	+2.1%	50%	+0.3%
15%	-7.8%	0%	-9.4%
20%	-16.8%	0%	-18.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$18 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$79

Unrealized−$57

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	G2	34¢	0¢	$57	$0	−$57 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 19	$60	+$20	+33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	Jun 18	$103	+$17	+17%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	28¢	$18	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY G2	38¢	$42	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	SELL G2	99¢	$79	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	58¢	$13	2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	72¢	$47	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner	BUY 9z	82¢	$103	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 7 history records