Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:18:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac8f…fedd
crypto · 583 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,571 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,517 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$92
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses165 / 406
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions15
Markets (closed)571 / 583
History coverage58d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day53.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 15 History 571 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$623
14 days+$665
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $8 $21 +$12 (+145%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+40%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+88%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $32 $2 −$30 (-93%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 12, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +216%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $12 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$11 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -75%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$7 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $124 +$89 +72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$20 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 +$11 +344%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $40 +$15 +36%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $21 −$13 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $82 −$57 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $85 −$27 -31%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$6 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $109 −$32 -30%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $25 −$7 -29%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $154 −$48 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $412 +$229 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $60 +$14 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 −$15 -74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $17 −$9 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $130 −$25 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$16 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +75%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $161 −$55 -34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $14 −$7 -52%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $180 −$103 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% −$310
other 17% −$846
crypto 13% −$142
sports 4% −$222
finance 2% +$138
politics 1% −$108
culture 0% −$20
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 83¢ $22 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $27 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 23% -1.5%
≤30d 462 -7.6% -16.4% 29% 24% -12.2%
≤90d 571 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 23% -17.1%
all 571 -8.0% -16.8% 29% 23% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 23% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 19% -25.0%
15% -32.0% 16% -32.3%
20% -38.7% 13% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.95 · official $91.83 (match) · 3500 history records