Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AC 0xac91…dfa0 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$267 (+22%) realized +$293 · open −$26

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate78%7W / 2L

Drawdown3%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+13.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+25.5%	+13.6%	78%	67%	+15.9%
≤30d	9	+25.5%	+13.6%	78%	67%	+15.9%
≤90d	9	+25.5%	+13.6%	78%	67%	+15.9%
all	9	+25.5%	+13.6%	78%	67%	+15.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.6%	67%	+15.9%
10%	+2.7%	56%	+4.8%
15%	-7.2%	44%	-5.3%
20%	-16.3%	22%	-14.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$5 · ×9.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×34.39 per $1 lost it wins $34.39

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$49

Realized+$293

Unrealized−$26

Win rate (resolved)78%

Wins / losses7 / 2

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions5

Markets (closed)9 / 14

History coverage6d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown3%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$17	$17	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$16	$16	−$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-3%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner	Dplus KIA Challengers	64¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$15	+$33	+214%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	Jun 17	$582	+$74	+13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$15	+$14	+89%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$290	+$114	+40%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$11	+$2	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$187	+$89	+48%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C	Jun 11	$20	+$1	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	SELL T1 Academy	100¢	$48	31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1 Academy	31¢	$15	58m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	100¢	$239	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$16	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$10	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$7	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$17	1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	84¢	$201	2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	98¢	$417	2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	89¢	$381	3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner	SELL Dplus KIA Challengers	100¢	$29	3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	64¢	$25	3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner	BUY Dplus KIA Challengers	52¢	$15	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$404	4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$290	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$187	20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$4	20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$11	20h
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C	BUY Galions	97¢	$20	5d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner	BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team	23¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.19 · official $49.19 (match) · 25 history records