Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac94…825d other 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 24% −$24
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$3
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage125d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $787 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $379 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $251 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $329 $0 +0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $323 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $309 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $568 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $333 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $74 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $217 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $327 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $797 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $555 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $439 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $520 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $332 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $88 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $286 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 7h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 12h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 13h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 14h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 17h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 19h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 19h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 20h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 28h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 30h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 31h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 34h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 38h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 40h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 44h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $48 45h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1321 history records