Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac97…0c75 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%47W / 43L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$178est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$164
14 days−$353
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$93
other 21% +$59
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +18.5% +7.2% 65% 30% -9.4%
≤30d 90 +5.5% -4.5% 52% 32% -8.1%
≤90d 90 +5.5% -4.5% 52% 32% -8.1%
all 90 +5.5% -4.5% 52% 32% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 32% -8.1%
10% -13.7% 18% -16.9%
15% -22.0% 11% -24.9%
20% -29.7% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses47 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage29d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $284 +$146 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $549 +$34 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $646 −$38 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 +$33 +22%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $769 +$19 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $592 −$36 -6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 −$4 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$42 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $66 +$3 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $186 +$35 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 +$1 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$3 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $237 +$11 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $143 +$5 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$1 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $217 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $173 −$339 -196%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $166 −$34 -21%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $168 −$15 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $430 −$42 -10%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $12 +$3 +24%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $205 −$172 -84%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $122 −$24 -20%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $38 −$7 -19%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$12 +12%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $121 +$25 +21%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $634 −$139 -22%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5 May 31 $2 +$2 +68%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 May 31 $103 +$322 +314%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $254 +$102 +40%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 30 $131 +$20 +15%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$1 -8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $48 +$3 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $39 −$3 -9%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque end in a draw? May 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 May 26 $89 +$53 +60%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 25 $102 −$2 -2%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 86¢ $239 18m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $44 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $8 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $8 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $13 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $16 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $7 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $47 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $6 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $178 23m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $3 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $43 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $105 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $3 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $161 26m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $16 27m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $2 27m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $93 27m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $35 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $48 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $94 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 27m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $93 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $153 28m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 48m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 520 history records