Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac9b…d4c5
other · 260 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$105,149 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80,010 · open +$9,514
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$132,162
Realized+$80,010
Unrealized+$9,514
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses83 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions56
Markets (closed)209 / 260
Avg bet$1,981
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit35%
Chart Positions 56 History 209 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,680
7 days−$3,633
14 days−$10,455
30 days−$17,793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 65¢ $26,761 $29,789 +$3,028 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $12,628 $14,814 +$2,185 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $8,910 $8,955 +$45 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $7,067 $8,482 +$1,415 (+20%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No 71¢ 55¢ $9,798 $7,637 −$2,160 (-22%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 64¢ $4,736 $7,466 +$2,729 (+58%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $9,016 $7,456 −$1,560 (-17%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3,427 $5,442 +$2,015 (+59%)
Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $3,437 $5,424 +$1,987 (+58%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 50¢ $2,670 $5,043 +$2,373 (+89%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $3,564 $3,630 +$66 (+2%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $2,436 $3,184 +$748 (+31%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 29¢ 26¢ $3,132 $2,896 −$236 (-8%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $1,665 $2,493 +$827 (+50%)
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 52¢ 46¢ $2,728 $2,418 −$310 (-11%)
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $2,913 $2,222 −$691 (-24%)
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1,777 $1,759 −$18 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 41¢ $654 $1,530 +$876 (+134%)
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $1,265 $1,401 +$136 (+11%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 41¢ $1,164 $1,293 +$130 (+11%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $1,345 $1,157 −$188 (-14%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $1,132 $988 −$143 (-13%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $569 $821 +$252 (+44%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $736 $630 −$106 (-14%)
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $476 $572 +$96 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $4,329 −$3,308 -76%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $319 −$192 -60%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $203 +$147 +72%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $27,663 +$5,447 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $14,930 −$14,930 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,171 −$3,171 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $8,710 +$6,335 +73%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,238 −$96 -4%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $387 −$380 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $9 −$9 -97%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 28 $1,871 −$1,016 -54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $51 −$50 -100%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 22 $1,483 +$207 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $92 −$90 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 20 $919 −$853 -93%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $5,469 −$3,502 -64%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1,153 −$1,118 -97%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $3,828 −$3,782 -99%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1,604 −$1,598 -100%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $222 +$156 +70%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $109 −$105 -96%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $565 −$558 -99%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 14 $985 +$5,162 +524%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $2,400 −$2,384 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $637 +$363 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 09 $1,773 −$1,723 -97%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $1,414 +$24,326 +1721%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 06 $6,918 −$6,902 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 06 $405 −$395 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 05 $14,895 +$4,792 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $133 −$130 -98%
Netanyahu out by March 31? May 02 $57 −$57 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 02 $310 +$275 +89%
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 02 $373 −$373 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 02 $760 +$145 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 02 $699 −$699 -100%
Genius FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 02 $316 −$316 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 02 $168 −$168 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 02 $410 −$172 -42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $936 −$936 -100%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 02 $92 −$92 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 02 $91 −$91 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 02 $121 −$121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% +$80,484
world 23% +$25,087
crypto 7% +$2,088
finance 4% −$11,105
politics 2% +$1,013
sports 1% −$1,071
tech 1% −$3,113
economics 0% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $95 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $2 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $5 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 39¢ $91 1h
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $101 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $50 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $140 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $26 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $3 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $6 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $80 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $2 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $5 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $25 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $5 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $20 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $622 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 13¢ $15 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $3,113 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $1,281 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 7¢ $46 2h
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $2,802 6h
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -42.5% -48.0% 33% 33% -34.4%
≤30d 27 +30.0% +17.6% 22% 22% -39.7%
≤90d 134 +15.5% +4.5% 34% 33% -8.7%
all 209 +30.3% +17.9% 40% 38% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.9% 38% +10.6%
10% +6.6% 35% +0.0%
15% ← realistic here -3.7% 32% -9.7%
20% -13.1% 27% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132,162.12 · official $132,162.72 (match) · 3500 history records