trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | +9.8% | -0.7% | 50% | 50% | +10.4% |
| ≤30d | 21 | +4.6% | -5.4% | 48% | 48% | +3.3% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +4.6% | -5.4% | 48% | 48% | +3.3% |
| all | 24 | -8.5% | -17.2% | 42% | 42% | -66.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.2% | 42% | -66.3% |
| 10% | -25.1% | 38% | -69.6% |
| 15% | -32.4% | 33% | -72.5% |
| 20% | -39.0% | 29% | -75.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 12¢ | $2,823 | $3,997 | +$1,174 (+42%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $3,000 | $3,397 | +$397 (+13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $773 | +$113 | +15% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $397 | −$246 | -62% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $488 | +$542 | +111% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $461 | +$311 | +67% |
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $164 | −$160 | -98% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $41 | −$40 | -97% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $513 | +$154 | +30% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $226 | +$286 | +127% |
| Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? | Jun 16 | $55 | +$170 | +307% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $187 | −$185 | -99% |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $55 | −$42 | -77% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $131 | +$99 | +75% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | Jun 15 | $53 | +$133 | +250% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $127 | −$125 | -98% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $148 | −$146 | -99% |
| Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $53 | −$52 | -98% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $267 | +$115 | +43% |
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | Jun 13 | $33 | −$32 | -98% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $71 | +$78 | +109% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $32 | −$31 | -98% |
| Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $299 | −$292 | -98% |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | Nov 26 | $523 | −$523 | -100% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Oct 07 | $5,989 | −$5,989 | -100% |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Jul 11 | $2,911 | −$2,911 | -100% |