Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac9c…6a15 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,474 (-37%) realized −$9,044 · open +$1,570
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$7,393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$519
7 days+$939
14 days+$648
30 days+$648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$4,013
crypto 16% +$271
politics 15% −$2,911
sports 6% −$553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.8% -0.7% 50% 50% +10.4%
≤30d 21 +4.6% -5.4% 48% 48% +3.3%
≤90d 21 +4.6% -5.4% 48% 48% +3.3%
all 24 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 42% -66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 42% -66.3%
10% -25.1% 38% -69.6%
15% -32.4% 33% -72.5%
20% -39.0% 29% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$770 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$7,393
Realized−$9,044
Unrealized+$1,570
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage343d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2,823 $3,997 +$1,174 (+42%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $3,397 +$397 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $773 +$113 +15%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $397 −$246 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $488 +$542 +111%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $461 +$311 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $513 +$154 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $226 +$286 +127%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $55 +$170 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $187 −$185 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $55 −$42 -77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $131 +$99 +75%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $53 +$133 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $148 −$146 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $267 +$115 +43%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$78 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $299 −$292 -98%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 26 $523 −$523 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 07 $5,989 −$5,989 -100%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $2,911 −$2,911 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,030 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $150 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $488 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $397 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $886 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $773 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $461 32h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $164 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $667 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $98 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $215 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $512 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 43¢ $226 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $55 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $187 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $230 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $131 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $55 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $46 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $81 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $148 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $53 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $381 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,393.42 · official $7,393.42 (match) · 73 history records