Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac9e…cca3 sports 410 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$662 (+2%) realized +$655 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%230W / 170L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$30
14 days−$296
30 days−$2,052
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$103
other 19% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +9.6% -0.8% 63% 63% -11.3%
≤30d 79 -22.3% -29.7% 47% 47% -35.7%
≤90d 301 -0.7% -10.2% 57% 57% -11.0%
all 400 +1.4% -8.3% 58% 57% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 57% -8.6%
10% -17.0% 56% -17.4%
15% -25.1% 51% -25.4%
20% -32.4% 42% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$94 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized+$655
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses230 / 170
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions8
Markets (closed)400 / 410
History coverage109d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 63¢ 66¢ $112 $118 +$6 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 60¢ 60¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango Maya Joint 62¢ 62¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 60¢ 60¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 56¢ 56¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffon Pol Martin Tiffon 48¢ 48¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 81¢ 80¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina Federico Cina 70¢ 74¢ $73 $77 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $113 +$21 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $113 +$59 +52%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua Jun 21 $1 +$1 +62%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $114 +$125 +109%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $0 $0 +73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $113 +$47 +42%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $113 −$18 -16%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum Jun 20 $32 +$31 +97%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $114 +$102 +90%
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 20 $113 +$59 +52%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $114 +$106 +93%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Rudy Quan Jun 20 $3 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $114 −$114 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $14 +$9 +65%
Yelyzaveta Chainykova vs. Matilde Mariani: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $116 +$32 +27%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $7 +$4 +55%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: Timo Rosenkranz Koenig vs Luka Talan Lopatic Jun 10 $63 −$63 -100%
Akugue vs. Kawa: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $100 +$19 +18%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $101 +$34 +34%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $68 −$68 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $101 +$29 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $102 +$98 +97%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 02 $101 −$12 -12%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $101 +$24 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $58 +$41 +70%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $101 −$101 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $101 +$24 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 30 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Yulia Starodubtseva May 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY Team Bald 60¢ $113 28m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Christopher O'Connel BUY Christopher OConnell 81¢ $107 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Pol Martin Tiffo BUY Pol Martin Tiffon 48¢ $114 51m
Targu Mures: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Gabriel Ghetu BUY Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 56¢ $113 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $113 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Maya Joint vs Emiliana Arango BUY Maya Joint 62¢ $113 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 70¢ $73 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango BUY Emiliana Arango 65¢ $113 23h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Zachary Svajda 79¢ $113 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $113 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 70¢ $113 2d
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 59¢ $113 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $113 2d
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Gabriela Ce 65¢ $113 2d
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 52¢ $114 2d
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Nick Hardt 66¢ $0 2d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qua BUY Enjoy 61¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $114 2d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 57¢ $0 2d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum BUY Damir Dzumhur 50¢ $32 2d
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Rudy Quan BUY Kenta Miyoshi 68¢ $0 2d
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Rudy Quan BUY Kenta Miyoshi 68¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $113 2d
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi BUY WW Team 49¢ $114 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 51¢ $114 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $113 3d
Yelyzaveta Chainykova vs. Matilde Mariani: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $6 3d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 60¢ $14 3d
Hijikata vs. Lehecka: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 46¢ $114 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.25 · official $857.25 (match) · 820 history records