Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xaca0…0232 crypto 145 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (799 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$44 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%57W / 79L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day799.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (799 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 36% -3.7%
≤30d 136 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 36% -3.7%
≤90d 136 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 36% -3.7%
all 136 +2.9% -6.9% 42% 36% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover799.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 36% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 30% -12.9%
15% -23.9% 22% -21.4%
20% -31.4% 16% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$28 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses57 / 79
Open positions9
Markets (closed)136 / 145
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day799.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 34¢ 82¢ $71 $170 +$100 (+141%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 72¢ 76¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 35¢ 84¢ $20 $48 +$28 (+139%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 30¢ 24¢ $60 $48 −$12 (-21%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 27¢ 18¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Bitcoin above 67,400 on June 15, 1PM ET? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-53%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 62¢ 76¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 60¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 45¢ 30¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 48¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 63¢ 32¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$11 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$43 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$7 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$34 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$55 -66%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$26 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $113 −$59 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $164 +$10 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$5 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$9 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$56 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$98 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$23 -33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$9 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$3 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $195 −$72 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $94 −$13 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$15 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $189 −$64 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$21 -38%
Ethereum above 1,840 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $125 +$296 +237%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $83 +$63 +76%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $177 −$30 -17%
Bitcoin above 67,200 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $100 −$10 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$28 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$30 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$40 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$13 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$13 -42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$27 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$38 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $860.64 · official $860.64 (match) · 950 history records