Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xaca0…9b86 sports 531 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19,859 (+3%) realized +$20,014 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%224W / 302L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,352per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$5,646est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57,226
7 days−$34,453
14 days+$9,453
30 days+$16,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$28,528
other 41% −$7,051
crypto 2% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -42.7% -48.2% 19% 19% -52.9%
≤30d 92 +11.8% +1.2% 47% 47% -3.0%
≤90d 408 -33.1% -39.5% 27% 27% -18.8%
all 526 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 43% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -6.8%
10% -18.2% 41% -15.7%
15% -26.1% 39% -23.8%
20% -33.3% 34% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,532) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,581 vs −$1,101 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$1,745
Realized+$20,014
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses224 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$5,646
Open positions2
Markets (closed)526 / 531
History coverage176d
Avg bet$1,352
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 526 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 40¢ 38¢ $1,500 $1,444 −$56 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $400 $302 −$98 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $514 −$500 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2,034 +$2,512 +124%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $412 −$400 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 28 $1,528 −$1,528 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 28 $1,732 −$1,732 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 28 $1,531 −$1,531 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2,538 −$2,538 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $2,338 −$2,338 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $2,440 −$2,440 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 28 $2,041 −$2,041 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 28 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5,047 −$5,047 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 28 $4,995 −$4,995 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5,053 −$5,053 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 28 $411 −$411 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $5,062 −$5,062 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 28 $1,436 −$1,436 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3,068 −$3,068 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 28 $10,066 −$10,066 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 28 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 28 $1,028 −$1,028 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 28 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 AND Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2,488 +$11,932 +480%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,528 +$2,449 +160%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,037 +$3,226 +158%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $2,034 +$2,617 +129%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2,034 +$2,549 +125%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,036 +$2,964 +146%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2,534 +$1,985 +78%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,454 +$7,131 +291%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $11,082 +$3,568 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,025 +$5,225 +510%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4,544 +$2,103 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,063 +$3,558 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8,036 +$1,376 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,039 +$2,224 +73%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $1,020 +$2,110 +207%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,144 +$2,039 +40%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4,305 +$3,842 +89%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5,694 +$3,658 +64%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,572 +$2,125 +60%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,528 +$2,419 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,525 +$1,809 +119%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,327 +$3,074 +232%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 14 $609 −$609 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $412 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1,527 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $2,031 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $514 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,034 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $412 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 31¢ $1,021 46h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1,436 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 AND Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY 17¢ $2,488 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3,068 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY 31¢ $1,982 3d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,028 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1,528 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2,037 5d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $1,531 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $2,034 6d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $2,034 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $2,036 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2,534 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $2,440 8d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 25¢ $2,454 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5,053 8d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $11,082 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4,544 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,063 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,338 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $8,036 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2,538 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,745.47 · official $1,746.88 (match) · 1165 history records