Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xaca8…fa59 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$12 (+42%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$19
other 18% −$2
crypto 18% −$5
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +49.5% +35.2% 57% 57% +35.0%
≤30d 7 +49.5% +35.2% 57% 57% +35.0%
≤90d 7 +49.5% +35.2% 57% 57% +35.0%
all 7 +49.5% +35.2% 57% 57% +35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.2% 57% +35.0%
10% +22.3% 57% +22.1%
15% +10.5% 43% +10.3%
20% -0.4% 43% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 28h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.70 · official $3.70 (match) · 15 history records