Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xaca9…5f81 other 66 markets active 3h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 66% −$14
politics 21% −$17
other 10% −$16
sports 1% +$50
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 20% 20% -0.7%
≤30d 16 +5.0% -5.0% 12% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 53 +0.3% -9.3% 21% 15% -8.6%
all 65 +0.1% -9.4% 22% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 12% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 12% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 9% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage613d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $105 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $209 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $108 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $105 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 11 $43 +$3 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +60%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 31 $24 +$7 +32%
Canucks vs. Flames Mar 31 $27 +$17 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 3h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 27h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $9 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 15d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.62 · official $36.62 (match) · 361 history records