Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacaa…b7f2 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$3
other 29% +$3
politics 11% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
sports 4% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.6% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 42% 0% -10.1%
all 52 +2.6% -7.1% 38% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -16.0% 6% -18.0%
15% -24.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage303d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $43 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $23 −$3 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $6 $0 +5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 21 $1 $0 -25%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $1 $0 +32%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 23 $4 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 22? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 22 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 22 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $38 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $43 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $28 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $15 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $1 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $10 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $24 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $7 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $23 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $13 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $33 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records