Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacaa…36b6 crypto 37 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-16%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate68%25W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$19
sports 34% −$12
politics 22% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.9% -17.6% 68% 24% -19.7%
≤30d 37 -9.3% -17.9% 68% 22% -24.9%
≤90d 37 -9.3% -17.9% 68% 22% -24.9%
all 37 -9.3% -17.9% 68% 22% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 22% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 11% -32.0%
15% -32.9% 11% -38.6%
20% -39.5% 8% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses25 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $51 −$18 -35%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $98 −$50 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records