Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xacae…acb0 politics 86 markets active 22h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$258 (+0%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$926per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$22
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$59
other 40% −$33
sports 4% +$340
world 4% −$4
crypto 1% −$14
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 9% -9.3%
all 86 +2.2% -7.5% 12% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 9% -9.3%
10% -16.4% 9% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 9% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,083) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$3 · ×15.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage89d
Avg bet$926
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $1,333 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,033 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,694 −$6 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $2,839 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $458 +$1 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,055 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,289 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,715 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,539 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,069 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $34 +$39 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $31 +$15 +50%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 07 $840 +$301 +36%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 22 $19 +$38 +206%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $784 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $287 22h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $287 23h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $549 23h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $550 27h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $589 29h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $590 30h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $380 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $381 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $880 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $882 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 11d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,117 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,119 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,111 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,113 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,045 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records